Insights

2Q18 Market Summary & Outlook: Despite trade war fears and market volatility, US economic momentum continues to lead peers

At the midpoint of 2018 many concerns from the beginning of year have materialized, along with some surprises. Market volatility is again oscillating amid uncertainty, US yields are on the rise, international growth is softening, and equity market dispersion is expanding across sectors and geographies. Fears of a full‐blown trade war between the US and China/rest of the world remain prevalent tail risks, even as fundamental indicators and corporate earnings continue to strengthen. As we look ahead, we think US growth will continue to diverge positively from the rest of the world, but also expect non‐US growth to pick‐up in 2H18. Near‐term volatility and media‐crazed uncertainty are likely to persist as well, highlighting the need for proper portfolio diversification and risk controls for long‐term investors.
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